Energy Barometer – professional insights for robust energy and industrial policy

Professor Jim Skea CBE Hon FEI – EI President

2016 presented challenges and marked big changes, for the UK as a whole and for the energy industry as a key part of the British economy. I hardly need to mention the Brexit vote, a new Prime Minister, the merging of the Department of Energy and Climate Change into the new Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy and the US elections to evoke the deep uncertainty that has characterised the past year.

One month into 2017, government, industry and the Energy Institute are looking ahead and trying to answer some essential questions: what changes are needed in the energy industry, how can policies help achieve the desired change, and how will these changes impact us today, next year, and in 5 years? What are the priorities moving forward?

Now is a pivotal time for UK policy development, which faces big challenges and also significant opportunities: negotiating the UK’s exit from the EU, the formation and implementation of a Modern Industrial Strategy, carving a path to make good on the UK’s Paris Agreement commitment through a new Emissions Reduction Plan, and setting a global example by leading on climate action.

Evidence is essential to policy makers as they tackle the complexity presented by these challenges. How to meet emissions targets, while improving the competitiveness of UK industries, in a scenario where the UK is expected to leave the EU single market? . Consultations, such as that just opened on BEIS’s approach to industrial strategy, are one way that policy makers tap the knowledge and expertise of those on the ground in the energy industry. The EI’s Energy Barometer is another unique opportunity, offered to only a selection of EI members each year.

By gathering evidence in the Energy Barometer questionnaire, the EI acts as an honest broker of the views of energy professionals about the challenges, opportunities, and priorities facing the UK’s energy industry. Our members have in-depth knowledge because they experience the industry first hand. Those who provide views and opinions through the Barometer include seasoned industry experts as well as those with fresh eyes who have started careers in energy only in the last 5 years. All of them offer insights otherwise unavailable to policy makers.

EI members thus have a unique opportunity to provide an invaluable input to the policy- making process. By participating in the Energy Barometer, they are helping to ground energy policy and industrial strategy in their own experience. The survey has been sent to College members in the first week of February. If you are invited, please don’t miss this chance to provide vital evidence which is needed and wanted to inform policy decisions.

Diversity and convergence: the 2016 Energy Barometer

Professor Jim Skea CBE
EI President

Energy professionals are a pretty diverse lot: engineers, managers, planners, finance people, lawyers and others. Lots of different perspectives but some remarkably convergent views have emerged from the 2016 Energy Barometer survey of 438 members of the Energy Institute. And the points on which they agree could be seen as some of the most contentious.

On Brexit, an overwhelming majority of contributors foresee negative effects on the UK energy system, especially in relation to securing energy supplies, renewable energy development, climate change and sustainability, and air quality. On the biggest challenges facing the energy sector, lack of continuity in energy policy, closely linked to investment obstacles, came out easily as the number one concern.

Scepticism that politicians’ appetite for ambitious climate targets is matched by their capacity and/or willingness to deliver marks a third area of striking consensus. More than 70% believed the world would warm by more than 2°C, regardless of the even more ambitious Paris agreement. And more than half thought the UK would fall “significantly” short of its own 80% emissions reduction target by 2050. Closer to the present day, there was also scepticism about the UK’s ability to meet its 3^rd, 4^th and 5^th carbon budgets. However, my personal view (and I was one of the randomly selected Barometer participants) is that the UK will easily meet the 3^rd carbon budget through Alice in Wonderland net carbon accounting and interactions with the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (should we remain part of it).

A final area of consensus, and one close to the Energy Institute, lies in the perceived shortage of skilled workers across all parts of the energy sector except North Sea oil and gas and fossil fuel electricity generation. Nuclear is seen as having the greatest shortage in skilled workers, both today and in five years’ time.

It is not all consensus of course and, if there were, the value of the Barometer would be diminished. For example, there is a range of views about prospects for gas and electricity prices, with more of a balance between those who thought prices would rise, those who thought prices would fall and those who thought they would stay roughly the same. But there is a tendency for more respondents to foresee electricity rather than gas prices rising as a result of investment needs for infrastructure and low carbon supply.

So what have we learned as an institute from conducting the survey? First, our members are enthusiastic and ready to contribute their expertise to the public debate. Second, that government and other stakeholders are ready to listen. We are launching this year’s report as part of the Energy Systems conference, organised with our partners at Elsevier. The 2016 Energy Barometer project, led by Dr Joanne Wade FEI, Chair of the Energy Advisory Panel, looks like a big success that builds on the 2015 launch of the Barometer. Who know what will happen in the next year (or even on the next 10 days)? But the world will listen if Energy Institute members voice their views again in 2017.

Climate Action in the US

Professor Jim Skea CBE
EI President

I had the good fortune to be invited to the Climate Action 2016 Summit in Washington DC in early May. This was a truly stellar event hosted by the UN Secretary General, the World Bank, the Rockefeller Foundation and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. The broad aim was to galvanise bottom-up climate change action as implied by the Paris agreement reached at the end of last year.

Apart from keynote talks from the great and good – Ban Ki-moon, Al Gore, Ségolène Royal, Jeffrey Sachs – what was fascinating was a) the degree of enthusiasm behind the climate agenda and b) the particular groups that were strongly represented at the meeting. The energy sector, notably, was not which I’ll come back to later.

There was particularly strong participation from city administrations, the finance sector and consumer-facing businesses. On the city side, Michael Bloomberg, businessman and former Republican Mayor of New York, made a strong case for the power of city administrations to effect real change through their influence on transport and planning. This message was endorsed by mayors from Washington DC, Atlanta, Montreal, Paris, Belo Horizonte in Brazil and Pristina in Kosovo. Prospective mayors of Sheffield and Manchester take note. As the event took place on the same day that London elected its new mayor, I did feel there was one important city in need of representation.

The finance community, both the multilateral developments banks (like the Asian Development Bank) and private sector investors and insurers, were out in numbers. Here the call was for carbon pricing to underpin low carbon investments and considerable celebration of the falling cost of renewable energy and energy storage. The one voice flagging up the limitations of carbon pricing was development economist Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia University’s Earth Institute. He warned that the ambition in the Paris agreement implied that planning and regulation were needed as well.

Business was represented by companies like Unilever (CEO Paul Polman) and Kelloggs. Message: they’re getting on with it especially in terms of greening the supply chains. But no real input from the energy sector! This point was explicitly addressed by Peter Bakker from the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. He was explicit that energy companies, including oil and gas companies, needed to be part of the agenda. Any transition away from fossil fuels would take decades and would need to be actively managed by all concerned. The hostility towards fossil fuels – and certain fossil fuel companies – expressed by some of the activists at the summit was not constructive and could certainly have discouraged attendance. A role for the Energy Institute in fostering dialogue and debate on these issues?

Finally, a word on how strongly the UK was represented at the meeting, both in terms of the number of participants from private companies and international organisations, and in terms of the quality of the input. Unfair to single out any one person, but Rachel Kyte, leader of the UN Secretary General’s Sustainable Energy for All initiative and former Vice-President of the World Bank, stood out in terms of commitment, grasp of her brief and quality of advocacy. Proof that climate action and energy access can go hand in hand.

Pressing home the message

Professor Jim Skea CBE
EI President

By now, many of the EI’s members will have received an invitation to join the EI College and help the Energy Institute project the views of its professional members to Government and beyond through its annual Energy Barometer report. Please do not ignore this invitation. This is probably one of the most effective ways that an EI member can participate in the public debate about energy, influence policy and help shape messages for society at large.

This year’s Energy Barometer survey, to which all College members are invited to contribute, comes at crucial time – just eight months after the General Election and two months after the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change’s much anticipated “reset” speech. Last year, College members told us that policy continuity was essential for reducing investment risk, promoting the better use of existing technology and increasing innovation. They also told us that investment risk had risen over the previous 12 months in almost all parts of the energy system. Read the Energy Barometer 2015 report.

What will you tell us and policymakers this year? It has certainly been a roller-coaster ride in the UK over the last few months, with major policy changes on renewables, energy efficiency and carbon capture and storage. Oil prices have fallen below $30/barrel with potential implications for investment in fossil and non-fossil energy alike. On the other hand, climate negotiators surprised the world (and perhaps themselves) by reaching an ambitious agreement at COP21 in Paris at the beginning of December, aiming to hold global temperature increases to well below 2 °C. Now every one of the 195 countries that have signed up is faced with the task of turning ambitious emission pledges into reality on the ground.

At no point in the last 25 years have the professional insights and skills of energy industry professionals been of more importance in helping the world to face up to both a longer term transition and shorter-term volatility.

Energy is a strategic business and the industry needs to work hand-in-hand with governments to deliver secure, affordable supplies of energy to consumers in a sustainable way. This requires trust and continuing dialogue between all parties. The EI College and the Energy Barometer are a crucial part of that dialogue. Government will listen when members of the professional body for the energy industry speak. The fact that the EI covers all parts of the energy sector – renewable and non-renewable, supply-side and demand-side, engineering as well as other professions such as law and finance – gives added weight. By taking an active part and responding to the Energy Barometer survey, EI members will help to ensure that government, society and the industry itself can make their plans based on the best professional advice. If you have received an invitation to participate, do please accept.

Invitations to join the EI College have been issued by email and the deadline for response was 15 January. The EI Energy Barometer survey will be circulated to participants online w/c 25 January 2016. If you are interested in contributing to this year’s research but haven’t yet responded, you can still RSVP through the email invitation you received up until the end of January.

Behind the scenes at COP21

Professor Jim Skea CBE
EI President

You’d think that being at COP21 would allow you to have your finger on the pulse and provide deep insight into what’s going on. That, I think, is why I’ve been encouraged to blog on COP21.

I’m here exactly half way through, having been here for five days. There’s certainly the buzz, but an intelligent look at the media and UNFCCC websites would probably tell you just about all that there is to know.
I’m one of 40,000 people who have established a small temporary town at the Le Bourget site on the edge of Paris. The ‘blue zone’, accessible to people like me who have got an observer pass, consists of six giant aircraft hangar size halls – two hold country ‘pavilions’ where an endless stream of side events (workshops, discussions) is taking place, one contains meeting rooms and exhibits for observers, one for the media, one with meeting rooms for delegations and one containing offices for UN bodies and the French Presidency plus the all-important plenary negotiating rooms. It took me 24 hours just to figure out the geography.

That being said, the buzz here is actually very good, although there are still major issues to be addressed. The ADP (Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action) has produced a text to kick off the second week’s negotiations. The second week is the high-level segment where ministers turn up to drive things along. Amber Rudd, the UK’s Secretary of State, arrived at the weekend and will be here throughout the week.

A key issue for many Energy Institute members will be the implications for business. The big players are all here and are taking the outcome seriously. I was in a meeting earlier today with one of the Europe-based oil companies which is devoting a lot of senior time to the event. ExxonMobil has announced that it ‘strongly supports effort toward a successful outcome’ and that ‘putting a price on greenhouse gas emissions is the best option to meet Paris climate goals’.

Some companies have boldly gone further: the ‘B-team’ group of companies – including Virgin and Unilever – have been calling for zero emissions by 2050 and some have backed calls for a 1.5 degrees global warming target, never mind the 2 degrees already agreed under the Convention. At the time of writing, there is a proposal that IPCC should produce a special report on 1.5 degrees. As one of the new IPCC Working Group co-chairs this affects me.

Finally, it’s great place for celebrity-spotting. Yesterday I was at an event on the Arctic addressed by Ban Ki-Moon, Segolene Royal and the Norwegian Prime Minister (plus four Norwegian teenagers who’d skied to the North Pole). Al Gore has been prowling the halls and came to give IPCC a pep talk at our first meeting. And Leonardo de Caprio has been adding his voice. If Arctic sea ice melts what would have sunk the Titanic?

On 15 December, Professor Skea will speak at an EI event in London entitled ‘UN Climate Change Conference COP21: where next for energy policy?’. Visit the EI website for more details.

Making heat ‘cool’

Professor Jim Skea CBE
EI President

Energy decision-making is widely varied. There are mega-decisions about nuclear reactors, gigawatt-scale offshore wind farms and interconnectors that criss-cross the North Sea. Then there are the literally millions of decisions, each modest in itself, which collectively shape energy needs and markets. Policymakers and headline writers love the big stuff. Nevertheless, it is the more humble things which will shape out the energy future and which really challenge policymakers.

“Heat” has become a catch-all term to describe all forms of energy use that are not electricity and not transport – and that’s a very large share of energy demand. There is a tendency to describe heat as a “sector”. Winston Churchill once famously said that India was no more a country than the equator was. Well India is certainly a country now but, in my view, heat is no more a sector than a kettle of boiling water is. And talking about heat markets is also bizarre. There may be some district heating schemes where heat is priced and traded but, for the moment, heat largely stays within the premises where it is generated and used.

It is also odd that the energy labelled “heat” in commercial buildings is more often used to keep us cool. Hence, the not entirely facetious title of this blog – we could really do with a catchy term, which covers the energy needed to keep us comfortable, whether it involves nudging temperatures up or down. “Heat” makes it sound as though policy is all DECC’s job. Something round “buildings” or “built environment” would make it clear that other government departments, notably Communities and Local Government who look after building standards have a rather important role to play. Suggestions welcome!

One of the consequences of regarding heat as a sector on par with real sectors, such as electricity, is the temptation to mimic policy mechanisms that work well where there are functioning markets, c.f. the complexity of the Green Deal. Smaller consumers do not make decisions with the same degree of sophistication as finance officers in major utility companies – and nor should they. If we want to promote energy efficiency and renewable heat then simple, understandable rules and incentives are needed. I was talking to a Swede yesterday who pointed out that Scandinavians value simplicity in all things from furniture design to energy policy. They look with bemusement at the elaborate mechanisms that the UK uses to shape electricity markets and energy consumption patterns.

So where does this rather grumpy rant take us? First, I think we need a holistic approach to keeping people comfortable in indoor environments. It is basically about minimising energy use and maximising inputs from environmentally sustainable energy sources. Second, a joined-up vision of where we are going would help. Top-down views of UK low carbon energy futures suggest a big role for heat pumps for example – but it is fair to say many energy professionals remain sceptical. Every time an old boiler is replaced by a modern combi boiler we lose the hot water tank – the cheapest form of energy storage for buildings – that would be needed to get heat pumps installed. Are we locking ourselves out of a low carbon future in the longer-term for more incremental gains in the short term? Finally, we need rules and incentives that match the needs of households and businesses and the way they make decisions. When DECC presses control-alt-delete on energy policy after the Spending Review is concluded, let’s hope “heat” is one of the areas that gets the attention it deserves.

The Heat Conference will be held on 25 November in London and is organised by the Association for Decentralised Energy and the Energy Institute.

The Government’s first 100 days (…or thereabouts)

Professor Jim Skea CBE
EI President

Well, 125 days on my reckoning but the EI is only slowly instilling some discipline into its new President.

Looking back at the Energy Barometer, which we published just after the UK General Election, the strongest message from EI Fellows and Members was the call for policy clarity. We’ve had a rapid sequence of announcements on renewables and energy efficiency since May, each of which is clear enough on its own. But taken together, the package has left a deepened sense of uncertainty about where things are going. As I argued in a piece in the ENDS Report, we need a high-level clarification of what energy policy is trying to achieve. How are the three strands of energy policy – climate, affordability and security – woven together in the Government’s view?

The policy landscape had certainly become unnecessarily cluttered. Geological layers of policies that overlap, interact and contradict have accumulated. A spring cleaning of the policy cupboard is overdue, and some of the recent announcements make eminent sense in terms of good governance. Strictly zero-carbon homes are a mirage if realised through offsite “affordable solutions” that could have been better procured by other means (but don’t throw away the baby with the bathwater by weakening efficiency requirements!). Few will lament the passing of the financial model that underpinned the Green Deal. But there is a sense of confusion as to whether the Government is pursuing “better regulation” or rolling back the low-carbon agenda, the latter conclusion being the one that many may draw. Meanwhile, away from the domestic energy policy scene, the Government remains upbeat about its ambitions for this year’s Paris climate conference.

Perhaps the clearest message since May has been the unambiguous support for shale gas. Unfortunately, central government and local government are not singing from the same hymn-sheet, as Lancashire County Council demonstrated when they rejected Cuadrilla’s planning applications in June. Whatever central government says, this creates uncertainty for investors. And anyone could feel confused by the government’s approach to local energy decision-making – does central government have the last word (shale gas) or do local communities (wind)? Wise investors recognise that sociology as well as geology is an important development criterion. If anyone succeeds in taking forward shale in the UK, it is likely to be the company that chooses development sites in areas with an industrial heritage and businesses that can benefit from lower energy prices.

The pressing need is for the Government to articulate the overall aims and philosophy of its energy policy. And, as Steve Hodgson argues in his most recent Energy World editorial, it’s the ‘sustainable energy agenda’ – renewables and efficiency – that has been buffeted most by recent announcements. In building confidence, my own priority would be the management of the Levy Control Framework which caps subsidies for renewables and energy efficiency. Whether this constraint bites or not is hugely dependent on volatile wholesale energy prices. Clarity about how the government intends to respond to that volatility is top of my list. And a comment on Hinkley Point developments would also be good. “DECC says no fears of Hinkley delays, despite review” was the headline in Engineering and Technology Magazine last November.

Hitting the ground running…

Professor Jim Skea CBE
EI President

It’s great for a new President to have two big hits in a single day. We launched the Energy Barometer in Parliament on 23 June at an event hosted by Neil Parish MP, recently installed as Chair of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee. A large audience filled the splendid committee rooms in the Palace of Westminster. Joan McNaughton CB HonFEI, Dr Joanne Wade FEI and myself, ably chaired by Ian Marchant FEI, summarised the findings and responded to a challenging set of questions from participants. If you have yet to take a look, the findings – www.energyinst.org/energy-barometer-2015-report – are well worth a read. It shows that the professionals who make up the Energy Institute (EI) have firm ideas about what the industry needs to do in terms of engaging with the public and passing on the torch to the next generation. But also very firm ideas about government’s role. The need for policy continuity was one of the strongest messages. When we go back to the EI College for their views next year, members will be able to express their feedback on how the new Government has performed in its first nine months – which promises to make for interesting reading!

From Parliament on to the Royal Academy of Engineering where Ian Marchant FEI chaired his final Council meeting, followed by the EI’s AGM. I was pleased to be elected President at this point – following the full and vigorous democratic processes characteristic of all professional bodies.

Then on to the second hit of my first day, the Cadman Lecture delivered by Malcolm Brinded CBE FEI, Chairman, Shell Foundation. Building on his long experience in the oil and gas sector, Malcolm distilled the energy challenge into five big “asks”: tackling the needs of the five billion people using less than a third of the world’s energy; establishing a global carbon market; accelerating energy access based on proven solutions; upping global collaboration and investment in the context of rapid urbanisation; and focusing on enterprise-based solutions, with more resources for early stage innovation. Plenty of food for thought and an engaged Q&A session that could have gone for ages. The Energy Institute at its best.

Malcolm’s lecture touched on a theme that I would like to return to during my Presidency – the need for a more holistic, systems-based approach to the energy sector. The EI took a big step forward back in 2003 with the merger of two preceding institutions. We obviously need to nurture the distinctive contributions that each part makes. But the need to reconcile energy access, security, affordability and climate compatibility poses new challenges that demand new thinking. I hope I can work closely with members and staff to take that agenda forwards.

Finally, this morning, my first meeting with Louise for the regular catch-up between the Chief Executive and the President gave me the opportunity to experience the refurbishment of the New Cavendish Street offices first-hand. It was remarkably quiet from the street, but as soon as you are through the front door the familiar scent of “builders in the house” is apparent. It’s all on track, with work forging on and staff taking it all in their stride.

Past, present and future

Ian Marchant FEI, President

All good things must come to an end and I am now handing over the Presidency of the Energy Institute (EI) having served two years. It has been a joy and a privilege to have the role and I hope I have been a good steward of our organisation. In reflecting on the two years, my thoughts are about the past, present and future.

We have just finished celebrating our one hundredth anniversary and that included a cake in the Palace of Westminster, a video from the Prince of Wales and numerous dinners and events up and down the country. It is good occasionally to look back and celebrate the achievements of the past, however that phase of EI’s life is over, probably for another 25 years. We have also launched the Energy Matrix, which makes available the accumulated knowledge of over 90,000 records and wisdom of our industry, in a modern digital form.

But enough of the past. We are all members of today’s energy industry and the EI continues to address today’s issues. During the last twelve months or so we have hosted the inaugural Energy Systems conference and our annual IP Week conference, which this year generated a lot of media interest, as well as another 90 events. A new addition to the EI calendar has been the autumn President’s event. In 2013, I hosted a debate and then in 2014 I gave a lecture which, as it was held in a function room at the Hard Rock Cafe, was full of song title puns. We have got involved in new initiatives such as POWERful Women and ESOS, and the first publication under the Energy Essentials banner has been issued. Our technical programme continues to go from strength to strength with the issue of 41 technical guidance documents, the publication of the first G9 offshore wind annual incident data report and further growth in the content of and access to The Journal of the Energy Institute. We have continued to drive up standards and build competencies for the future with the accreditation of 68 energy-related courses in 21 institutions throughout the world.

And talking of the future, as I hand over the reins to the very capable hands of Professor Jim Skea CBE FRSA FEI, I would highlight three foundation stones that have been laid recently. Firstly, we have started the refurbishment of our building to make it fit for the 21st century and to provide better member services. Secondly we have undertaken and launched our first Energy Barometer, which uses the knowledge and experience of our membership to gauge the state of the energy world and to inform policymakers and commentators. Thirdly, we introduced a new EI award category, the Young Energy Professional of the Year, to complement the work of our growing Young Professional Networks.

I believe that the group who met under the leadership of Sir Boverton Redwood a hundred years ago would be proud of what their creation continues to do and in its plans for the future.

Energy Barometer – the role you can play

Prof. Jim Skea CBE FEI
EI President Elect

This month sees the roll-out of the EI’s new Energy Barometer, which aims to ensure that the voice of the energy professional is heard by policy-makers and in the wider energy debate. The Barometer will be drawn from an annual survey among EI members.

Some of you will have already had an email from EI President, Ian Marchant FEI, inviting you to join the EI College which is at the heart of the Energy Barometer initiative. This means you had the good fortune to be randomly selected from among the professional and pre-professional membership to spearhead the Barometer project. If you have received an invitation, please accept at once. The EI Knowledge Team is waiting for your reply.

The team is currently preparing a questionnaire, which will be circulated to College members in early February. This involves researching questions, consulting industry experts and the EI’s Energy Advisory Panel, and fine-tuning the questions with the help of survey experts based at the University of Cardiff. College members will be given two weeks to complete the questionnaire online, which should take no more than one hour. In March, the EI Knowledge Team will start to draw up a report developing a clear narrative from the conclusions and identify strong or surprising messages. The report will be reinforced with relevant industry statistics and will cross-reference energy policy proposals featuring in the party manifestos for the 2015 General Election. The report will then be published at a suitable time in the weeks following the election, and its findings will be communicated to EI members, government, and the public.

I can’t over-emphasise the importance of EI members’ participation in bringing credibility and prestige to the Barometer report. We are determined to ensure that the report picks up members’ views, 600 in all, right across the EI. In practice, this means that we’ve refined our random selection in two ways: first by making sure that we meet quotas for Fellow (FEI), Member (MEI) and Graduate (GradEI) members to ensure that the perspectives of both seasoned industry experts and future energy leaders are captured; second by ensuring that we get equal contributions from those who have elected to receive Energy World and those who have elected to receive Petroleum Review magazines.

If you have not received an invitation, you have not lost out. The College will have a two-year rolling membership with half the members replaced annually so that we combine an element of continuity with an opportunity for a wide range of EI members to contribute. This year’s invitations will be for a mixture of one-year and two-year memberships – in 2016 a further set of invitations will go out and you may well be on the list.

People who are not College members can also join activity on social media to discuss potential questions and important topics as well as debate the report findings – join in the conversation now @EnergyInstitute #EnergyBarometer to help form the questionnaire.

This is an exciting initiative in what will be a critical year for energy policy. Please join in and make your voice heard.

Energy Institute blog

Creating a better energy future

prof jim skea

Energy Barometer – professional insights for robust energy and industrial policy

Diversity and convergence: the 2016 Energy Barometer

Climate Action in the US

Pressing home the message

Behind the scenes at COP21

Making heat ‘cool’

The Government’s first 100 days (…or thereabouts)

Hitting the ground running…

Past, present and future

Energy Barometer – the role you can play

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